When strategies depend on assumptions, the main failure mode is not “being wrong”—it’s failing to notice when the assumptions expired. ASF prevents quiet assumption decay by defining mutually exclusive regimes, stress-testing them adversarially, and installing decision-forcing tripwires.
ASF models a small set of mutually exclusive regime states. Each regime is a rule-set that determines which strategies remain valid. Then ASF defines tripwires—observable thresholds that signal when the rule-set has changed. The objective is not clairvoyance; it’s disciplined uncertainty management: fewer surprise failures, clearer thresholds, and auditable reasoning that can be reviewed, updated, and defended.
Define 3–5 regimes as constraint-defined operating environments. Each regime must be mutually exclusive for governance.
Attack the strategy: hidden failure modes, irreversibility, tail hazards, cross-impact constraints, and “consensus drift.”
Install soft and hard tripwires: signal → threshold → escalation owner → posture change. Make strategy-change actionable.
A regime is the rule-set that determines which strategies remain valid. It is not a narrative, not a scenario, and not a forecast. It’s the governance container for decision logic.
A tripwire is an observable threshold that signals a regime rule has changed. Tripwires are decision-forcing: they trigger escalation and posture changes.
ASF outputs are designed to be short, board-usable, and auditable. They define what to watch, why it matters, and what changes when the signal triggers.
A decision-control artifact: regimes, constraints, misclassification costs, and the tripwire set that forces timely escalation.
A living layer that prevents the brief from decaying: status, pressure, and escalation artifacts that keep governance current.
Strategy Breakpoint is designed to be deployable in executive and board contexts. That requires clear boundaries: governance, not advice; thresholds, not targets; auditable reasoning, not narrative persuasion.
ASF provides a decision-governance framework for uncertainty management. It does not provide investment, trading, operational, or legal advice; it does not provide forecasts or guarantees; decision responsibility remains with the client.
Define regimes and constraints; stress-test adversarially; propose tripwires and escalation rules; produce board-grade briefs and monitoring artifacts; document reasoning and change-control so it can be reviewed and defended over time.
We do not issue point forecasts, price targets, “calls,” or guarantees. We do not execute trades or operational actions. We do not replace counsel, compliance, or management decision authority.
Engagements are designed to be low-burden and high-governance: short discovery, rapid synthesis, then an operating cadence if you choose monitoring.
Confirm decision class, irreversibility, time horizon, and governance audience. Define the strategy object and boundary conditions.
Define regimes; run adversarial synthesis; draft tripwires; align escalation owners and posture changes. Deliver the brief.
Install the dashboard; run monthly or quarterly updates; maintain change-control and audit trail. Escalate when tripwires trigger.
Decision-level materials are enough. ASF is designed to run without needing internal models or proprietary data exhaust.
Short artifacts meant to gate decisions and force timely escalation.