Strategy Breakpoint: Regime & Tripwire Brief
A short, board-ready decision-control artifact that defines operating regimes, what each allows/forbids, the most expensive error under misclassification, and tripwires that force action.
Strategy Breakpoint helps leaders governing long-dated, irreversible commitments detect when assumptions quietly expire—so you can change posture before compounding losses make the choice for you.
Branded around a permanent executive fear: “What if the strategy stops working and we don’t notice in time?”
Strategy is a plan under assumptions. Breakpoint is the condition where those assumptions stop holding. A Strategy Breakpoint is the moment continuing “as if nothing changed” becomes the highest-risk choice.
We provide decision governance for deep uncertainty: regime identification, adversarial stress-testing, and explicit tripwires that force escalation. We do not sell point forecasts, price targets, or “calls.”
ASF is a structured decision-governance method for environments where single forecasts routinely fail. Instead of predicting outcomes, ASF defines a small set of mutually exclusive regimes, stress-tests them adversarially, and establishes tripwires that signal when assumptions no longer hold—so leaders can change strategy before losses compound.
Regimes are constraint-defined operating environments. They are not scenarios, narratives, or forecasts.
Expose hidden failure modes: irreversibility, cross-constraint interactions, tail hazards, and “false consensus.”
Tripwires are decision-forcing triggers: observable thresholds with explicit escalation and posture changes.
In ASF, a regime is the rule-set that determines which strategies remain valid; tripwires tell us when those rules have changed.
Most strategic failures don’t come from missing information—they come from expired assumptions that went unnoticed. ASF exists to make “assumptions expiring quietly” operationally impossible to ignore.
Two ways to buy Strategy Breakpoint: a board-grade brief, then a monitoring layer that keeps governance current.
A short, board-ready decision-control artifact that defines operating regimes, what each allows/forbids, the most expensive error under misclassification, and tripwires that force action.
A living dashboard that scores regime pressure, tracks tripwire status, and documents escalation rules, decision owners, and update cadence—so the brief doesn’t silently decay.
Strategy Breakpoint is for leaders making long-dated, irreversible commitments—especially where capex and governance exposure dominate.
Oil-weighted, LNG-heavy, or power-centric portfolios. Capex, contracts, hedging posture, sanctions, and physical transit risk.
Decisions that cannot be “undone” without political, financial, or physical irreversibility.
Regime-aware allocation governance: correlated tail risk, liquidity mismatch, and exposure coherence under regime shift.
Long-dated contracts, major financing structures, and strategic commitments where the cost of being late is nonlinear.
Clear boundaries keep ASF credible and deployable in governance settings.
No. ASF is a decision-governance instrument. It defines regimes, constraints, and tripwires that invalidate assumptions. It does not issue point forecasts, price targets, or event-date predictions.
A scenario is a narrative. A regime is a constraint-defined operating environment that determines which strategies remain valid. Regimes are mutually exclusive for governance; regime change is driven by constraint violations (tripwires), not outcomes.
Decision-level materials: key irreversible decisions at stake, capex posture, major contracts/counterparties, hedging posture, financing structure, and any existing risk/compliance briefs. ASF is designed to run without model access or data exhaust.
The brief is designed to gate votes: proceed, proceed with gates, defer, or cancel/unwind under each regime. Hard tripwires force immediate escalation; soft indicators create a watchlist and pre-tripwire degradation actions.
If you’re governing long-dated commitments and want disciplined breakpoint detection, reach out.
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